Holiday Angels – Seasonal Retail Predictions ft. Victoria’s Secret

Women’s Wear Daily analyzed NRF data for the upcoming season in “NRF Forecasts Modest 2024 Holiday Sales Gains." Late fall and early winter shopping incentives are utilized by brands with increased budgets for advertising and a higher volume of product in production. However, in comparison to previous years, opportunities like Black Friday were projected to have a lower and more spread-out impact. Promotional sales began at increasingly earlier dates, some as soon as pre-Halloween. Although consumers are conscious and cautious of their spending, they are still spending resiliently (especially on necessary products), though shoppers are more strategic and budget-oriented due to inflation and rising interest rates. As predicted by Deloitte, individuals are projected to spend $1,778 on average this holiday. According to Customer Growth Partners, this spending will culminate in a “4 percent year-over-year increase in 2024 holiday sales, totaling $963 billion, up from $926 billion in 2023” (WWD, 2024). Of this, $240.8 billion will be spent online during the November-December period, an 8.4% gain from the previous year, signaling the settling of spending habits since the frantic pandemic buying. This shopping trend will be reported in best-selling “pet, office supply, vintage, health and personal care, apparel, food and beverage, and home improvement categories," contrasting with the least-shopped “sports, toys, hobbies and home furnishing” (WWD, 2024). 

Retailers have begun debuting their exclusive lines as the seasonal spirit awakens. Victoria’s Secret’s holiday collection is annually iconic: their fashion shows have created a legacy and angelic standard in the industry. Beginning in 1995 and running through 2018 when the event ceased, 2024 brought back the VS Fashion Show with a seductive vengeance. The palpable nostalgia built anticipation for familiar loyal customers, the show once more becoming their base campaign and introduction of holiday product for the upcoming season. Along with the pieces themselves, VS sells limited merchandise branded appropriately. The runway featured models in newly imagined though classic wings, paired with divinely lacey lingerie. This cast drew attention, including recognizable names like Tyra Banks, Adriana Lima, and Alex Consani. Their bodies were worshiped in suggestive sheers layered upon sensual nightwear, sparkling with festive elegance. The show supplied ample content for all platforms- from team and model interviews to behind-the-scenes extras. Their take on holiday glamour translates into stills on their social media. Their Instagram grid is red-themed shoots with accents of plaid and silver sparkle, tied up neatly with soft satin ribbon into a classic bow.  

Other than garment, holiday merchandise includes an advent calendar with winter-influenced product like scented body mists and a glittering logo key chain. To ease consumers towards certain pieces, their website features categorized gift guides, whether looking to shop self-care or “for the cozy lover on your list” (VS & Co., 2024). In terms of their fiscal performance, Victoria’s Secret is currently within their third quarter as Q2 ended August 3, 2024, which was the fourth consecutive quarter with an improved sales performance. The Company forecast expects “net sales to increase low-single digits compared to last year’s third quarter net sales of $1.265 billion” (VS & Co., 2024). The 2024 fiscal year net sales are expected to be down 1%, resulting in an operating income of between $275 million to $300 million. Victoria’s Secret’s holiday season is lucrative and coveted- shedding heavenly light on 2024.